博客首页 | 排行榜 |

思考的蛋

滚动,要保持滚动!

个人档案
博文分类
微博
水晶球里看未来(翻译作业)  2006-12-25 11:45

上周对别人提出了要求:每周翻译一篇英文文章,可长可短,但务必持之以恒。我深知,翻译是一个苦差事,从理解原文,到化归己用,怎么说的圆满流畅,实在是颇费心神。但是既然为难了别人,自己也没有理由偷懒,两日来连带着翻译(或者说编译)了一篇英国独立报的文章,其中时有自己的缩略,延展和发挥。贴在自己的blog里面,同伙们能学的就学,能挑错的就挑错,博主虚心接受批评。

水晶球里看未来:50年后的人类科技

(声明:家庭作业,谢绝商业用途的转载)

月球上的人类基地;人脑里的存储器;中国科技的崛起以及最最重要的无污染能源——在21世纪,这些幻想和希望能否都变成现实?

尽管预测未来从来都是一个容易贻笑大方的事情,但是从人脑化学到空间旅行,总有很多人乐于发表自己对于未来的看法。一群来自英国工业界和学术界的前沿专家,分别对自己的研究领域作出了预测,让我们得以透过水晶球看看50年后的人类科技图景。

收集上来的246个未来预测中,有的预测了国际货币市场波动带来的社会、经济影响,有的预测了基因技术带来的医学革命,还有的则对人口老龄化趋势提出了忧思。这项由英国政府主导的调查,目的当然和那些吉普赛的巫婆不同——巫婆为了挣钱,而英国政府希望籍此更好的辨识风险、抓住机遇,为政府的长期决策和发展规划寻找更稳固的理论依据。

特别值得注意的是,英国科学家对中国未来20年的科技发展似乎比中国人自己更有信心。他们认为,一直作为世界生产基地的中国,将创造出更精密、更高端的科技产品。除了中国之外,新加坡、韩国和巴西这些快速发展的发展中国家,都将在21世纪展开优秀人才的竞争。但是,由此造成的人才流动和20世纪发生的人才迁徙将有本质不同:以前,各国人才纷纷被吸引到欧美国家,而在21世纪,人才将不会停留在某一个所谓中心国家,而是从一国流动到另一国,形成一种全球性的人才流动。

医药:生物技术和信息技术的神奇融合

干细胞疗法和核糖核酸(RNA)干扰方法在20年内都保持着方兴未艾之势。因为有了它们,某些一直认为是无药可求的绝症将有可能被攻克。而随着生物技术和信息技术的共同发展,人类的身体和精神也有可能从本质上被重新构建。例如,未来我们的皮肤和大脑里都可能藏有芯片,以提高某些身体和大脑机能;那些残疾人士也可能凭借神经系统内的芯片获得对外界的感知力。但是,科学家除了要解决人体对芯片的排异反应之外,还要等待伦理传统、道德观念和社会成见对新技术的容忍和接受。

那么,哪个国家将最先开始这种医学科技革命?答案是韩国。科学家们的理由是,韩国普及的宽带应用和对整容外科手术的高涨热情,使得体内芯片的大胆设想最有可能率先实现。

环境:科技进步带来的两方博弈

气候变化无法避免,但是它到底能变的多坏,还是看我们究竟能制造多少污染,又能化解多少污染。到21世纪中叶,科学家预言气候将上升25摄氏度,并由此带来一系列连锁反应:动植物的迁徙,海平面升高,反常的气候变动。发达国家能够对此做出一些积极的应对措施,但是对于发展中国家而言,有些方法根本无法照搬。比如,荷兰的海洋围坝可以减轻海水对国民的威胁,但是同样的思路无法在面临同样问题的孟加拉国照搬,因为一旦如此,原本定居在洪水泛滥地区的大量人口将涌向其他城市,而由此带来的人口安置问题是这个国家无力应付的。

现在,对全球动植物资源的整理和统计工作仍然在进行之中,50年之内,最终的统计报告将会出炉。目前,据称记录在案的物种在140万到180万之间,然而原本这个数字应该是1亿。

科学家们正在努力发明出更加职能的计算机模型,以检测全球气候系统的变化并做出更加准确的预报。

先毁灭世界,再拯救世界,难道真是我们无法避免的宿命?

机器人:所有的东西都是一个计算机

让机器人如人一般的行走是人类控制论的一大进展;但是让机器人不仅能用手挥动笨重的铁锤,而且还能使用小巧的铅笔就难上加难了。好在,没有人规定机器人必须以一个固定的形态出现,它完全可以是一堆能够自由组合的器件,在不同的环境下以不同的姿态出现:像人一样的陆地行走,像鱼一样的水中游动,像鸟一样的展翅飞翔。

科学家们相信,在更遥远一些的将来,机器人将可能以一种“集群智能”的方式发挥作用,类似分工协调的聪明的蚁群——群体中的每一只蚂蚁都不太可能挨饿,可单只的蚂蚁往往就命运悲惨了。科学家预测,机器人集群将广泛用于边远地区甚至不同星球上的远程环境监测。

实际上,嵌入式的计算机应用已经在我们的生活之中普及开来。比如,我们已经习惯了将某种芯片安装在汽车里面,通过接受卫星信号给我们导航。今后,还会有更多的计算机智能躲在日常用品中发挥神奇作用。

宇宙空间:人类的新殖民地

美国已经多次展现他们对月球的探索热情。这次,他们准备建造一个永远的人类月球基地,一面探索月球上的矿藏,一面开展更加大胆的天文试验。

计划于2020年前修建完毕的月球基地实际上是一个更大计划的前站:2030年,美国人计划启动火星基地计划。这项计划的一个可能目标是,找到火星上的水资源,进而用其生产出必须的能源,保证人类基地能够在这个红色星球上正常运营。中国对其载人航天计划三缄其口,但是有报道称,快速发展的国力和民族自豪感很有可能让中国和美国展开一场新的航天技术竞赛,在2020年之前将自己的宇航员送上月球。

太阳能能够把月球上的冰块分解成氧气和氢气,这也是宇宙飞船燃料中最基本的两种成分。从理论上说,如果人们能在月球上建造一个足够大的收集太阳能的设施,这个设施就能将太阳能以微波的形式反馈到地球,这些能量足够支撑整个地球从现在一直到2050年的所有的能量消耗。

不仅如此,月球还能成为铝、钛、镁、硅、铁和碳的原料基地。而且,月球还富含大量导致核子融合的氦的同位素,这种物质是一种潜在的清洁能源的必要元素。

能源:核能和太阳能成为希望所系

由于工业化进程,发展中国家对于能源的需求与日俱增。在过去的15年中,能源消耗每年增加1.5%,在接下来的20年间,这个数字将提高到2%。这就意味着,能源消耗量在36年里翻了一番。

石油一直是主要的能源,而且一直到下个世纪都可以基本满足需要。但是石油总会用光,因此人们必须考虑替代品。风力是其中最多被利用的替代性能源,但是只有核能和太阳能才能彻底改变能源供应模式,因为相比之下,这两种能源能够产生出巨大的能量。

因为难以确保核污染的万无一失,传统的核裂变的核能利用方式一直广有争议,而核子融合方式成为获得无限清洁能源的希望所在。报道称,一个耗资50亿美元的试验反应堆将在未来10年间建成,但是人们无法确保这一反应堆的试验成功。太阳能虽然能够满足我们绝大部分的能源需求,但是如何将利用成本降到可以接受的程度,也是一个困扰科学家已久的问题。

 

 原文:

 

 

Science's crystal ball: A look into the future

Published: 21 December 2006

A permanently manned base on the Moon, memory implants in the brain, the rise of a Chinese scientific superpower and unlimited, pollution-free energy. They sound like science fiction, but could they come true in the 21st century?

Predicting the future is a notoriously risky business, yet teams of experts have given their considered opinion on what to expect in the next 50 years in fields ranging from brain chemistry to space travel.

Yesterday, the Government published a series of 246 insights or "scans" into the future based on the knowledge of hundreds of specialists drawn from industry and academia known to be at the cutting edge of new developments.

Their scans covered everything from the social and economic effects of financial shocks on the international currency markets to the implications of medical breakthroughs in genetic technology and the increasing influence of an ageing population.

Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, acknowledged how difficult it was to see beyond the next 10 or 15 years in terms of scientific developments but nevertheless, he explained, there was still a rationale for scanning well beyond the known horizons.

"These scans are tools for government to identify risk and opportunities in the future. We're not in the business of predicting the future," Sir David said.

"But we do need to explore the broadest range of different possibilities to help ensure government is prepared in the long-term and considers issues across the spectrum in its planning," he said.

As the 21st century unfolds, we can expect to see the rise of China as a scientific superpower. As Chinese science develops in the next 20 years, the goods made by the world's manufacturing powerhouse will become more sophisticated and high-value.

Other emerging countries are expected to include Singapore, South Korea and Brazil, which will compete for the leading minds in science and engineering. The 20th century "brain drain" to North America and Europe will give way to "brain circulation" in which the best people move from one country to the next, competing in a global market.

The insights are published by the Government's Horizon Scanning Centre, which is part of the Foresight Directorate within Sir David's Office of Science and Innovation.

There are two types of scan: a "delta scan" containing 100 short expert reports exploring future developments in science and technology, and a "sigma scan" of 146 short papers drawing on current work and aimed at identifying future issues and trends across a wide spectrum of public policy.

Medicine

Medical developments such as stem cell therapy and RNA interference will continue to make progress in the coming decades. They will offer hope of treating incurable conditions, and could eventually lead to cures that were thought impossible only a few years ago.

Other developments in biology, however, could lead tomore fundamental rebuilding of our minds and bodies. Computers for instance will shrink, making it possible for them to be made small enough to be built into a body. The idea would be to implant chips under the skin or even devices into the brain to improve physical or mental performance. Extensions of the nervous system could improve the lives of the disabled and the able bodied.

"While optoelectric implants can restore lost vision, they could also be used to give people the ability to see outside the visible spectrum ... Although aural implants and pacemakers ... are already in use, significant resistance to implantable devices may persist due to social, moral, ethical and religious objections," it says, adding that "the majority of human computational extensions may be more l ike an exoskeleton".

If any country is likely to lead the revolution in wearable computers it is South Korea, where high broadband use and the world's highest rate of plastic surgery provide the medical and technical infrastructure to meet the demand.

Environment

Climate change seems inevitable but just how bad it will eventually become depends on how much pollution we create and how fast we can develop technology to mitigate the effects. Global average temperatures could rise by between 2C and 5C by the middle of the century, leading to animal and plant migrations, rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Developed nations may produce the technology to mitigate the worst effects, but this will be more difficult in developing countries. The sort of sea barriers being developed for the Netherlands, for instance, would be too costly for countries such as Bangladesh, "suggesting the possibility of a massive, chaotic migration of urban populations away from coastal floodplains", the report says. The process of identifying and cataloguing all of the many millions of plants and animals of Earth will continue. The final book of life may even be completed within the next 50 years. To date, between 1.4 million and 1.8 million species have been recorded but there could be as many as 100 million species on Earth.

Scientists will continue to produce more sophisticated computer models of the Earth's climate system and weather forecasting will improve as data collection becomes more sophisticated.

Robotics

A robot that walks like a man will be one of the biggest developments in cybernetics, although mimicking the ability to wield a hammer and pen with the same hand will be even more difficult.

But there is no reason why a robot needs to maintain a definite shape. It can be an assembly of components that reconfigure themselves to suit the task in hand - walking on land, swimming like a fish in water or even flying.

In the more distant future, it may be possible to produce swarms of tiny robots that exhibit the same kind of "swarm intelligence" that makes ants forage more intelligently. "Swarm robotics might provide a better way of monitoring remote environments on earth and on other planets than does a single complex device," the insight says.

Computer power will become more embedded in everyday objects. We already accept that a device in our car can use satellite information to update our position in real time.

Space

The United States has already declared its interest in returning to the Moon, but this time to set up a permanently manned lunar base. Mineral mining and astronomy are just two of the activities that could be carried out.

A lunar base by 2020 could be used as a staging post for a far more ambitious attempt to send a manned mission to Mars after 2030. One possibility is to locate sources of Martian water and use it to manufacture the fuel necessary to build a base on the red planet. China remains the unknown quantity in terms of manned space exploration, says the report. It is possible that economic growth and national pride could lead to a new space race, with China competing against the US to send astronauts to the Moon before 2020.

Once on the lunar surface, solar energy could be used to split any water ice found in lunar craters into oxygen and hydrogen - the basic ingredients of rocket fuel. If solar farms on the Moon can be made large enough it may even be possible to beam energy back to Earth in the form of microwaves. "Large solar farms in direct, constant sunlight could beam energy to Earth via large microwave antennas and provide enough energy to power all of Earth by 2050," says the report.

The moon could also be the source of raw materials such as aluminium, titanium, magnesium, silicon, iron and carbon. It also has stores of the isotope helium-3, a necessary ingredient for nuclear fusion - a potential clean source of energy.

Energy

Demand for energy will continue to rise as developing countries become more industrialised. Over the past 15 years, energy consumption increased at about 1.5 per cent per year. Over the next 20 years it is expected to rise by 2 per cent per year, meaning energy consumption would double in 36 years.

Fossil fuels have supplied much of the energy in the past and there is enough oil in the ground to meet demand for well into the coming century. However, at some point it will begin to run out and alternatives must be considered. Wind energy is the fastest growing alternative source of energy in the world but only nuclear and solar power have the potential to dramatically alter the energy supply landscape. This is because both power sources can potentially produce huge amounts of energy.

Conventional nuclear power produced by fission remains controversial. Waste management is still a largely unresolved issues in many countries. Nuclear fusion remains one of the greatest hopes for unlimited supplies of clean energy. "Iter, a $5bn (£2.5bn) experimental reactor, will come online in about a decade, but success is not guaranteed," the report says. Solar power offers the potential to meet most of our energy needs, but it needs to be more cost-competitive.

类别:职业生涯 |
上一篇:昨晚关于一本书的对话 | 下一篇:吐痰的问题和解决的办法
以下网友评论只代表其个人观点,不代表本网站的观点或立场