On September 11, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and eight other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Industry." This marks the second five-year-level industrial plan for the automotive industry, following the "Development Plan for the NEV Industry (2021-2035)" released in 2020.
Before breaking it down, one thing must be clarified first. Several "full text" versions circulating online are abridged: none of the seven special columns embedded in the main text are included, and the entire 17th task, "Deepening Investment Cooperation in China," has disappeared. The framework of this document consists of five aspects, 17 tasks, and seven special columns. The special columns contain the most specific actionable measures, such as promoting around 50 typical AI application scenarios, building a three-level "national-local-enterprise" safety monitoring platform, and launching pilot cooperation on cross-border data flow with key countries and regions. Reading only the main text is equivalent to skipping the most actionable half.
The following text by Vehicle provides a clause-by-clause interpretation based on the original document, hoping to offer information and inspiration to industry insiders or those looking to enter the automotive sector. It reveals the development trends of China's automotive industry and helps clarify the key focuses of industry development.
What is Planned?
Five aspects and 17 tasks, plus four major projects and three key actions
The document is divided into three sections: General Requirements, Key Tasks, and Strengthening Organization and Implementation. The key tasks form the main body, categorized into five aspects:
I. Enhancing Technological Innovation Capabilities: Tasks 1-3, including Special Column 1 "Key Technology Breakthrough Project"
II. Promoting the Optimization and Upgrading of the Industrial System: Tasks 4-7, including Special Column 2 "AI + Automotive Development Action" and Special Column 3 "Key Components Ecosystem Construction and Leading Enterprise Cultivation Action"
III. Promoting Cross-Sector Integrated Development: Tasks 8-10, including Special Column 4 "Intelligent Connected NEV Application Promotion Action"
IV. Building a Scientific and Efficient Industry Governance System: Tasks 11-14, including Special Column 5 "Standards and Testing Evaluation Capability Enhancement Project" and Special Column 6 "Safety Foundation Project"
V. Opening a New Situation for Global Industrial Cooperation: Tasks 15-17, including Special Column 7 "Internationalization Capability Leap Project"
Four projects to build capabilities, three actions to target scenarios
Among the seven special columns, Special Column 2 is the most worth highlighting separately. This subject was not included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, where AI was merely an "enabling tool across R&D, production, supply, marketing, and service links." This time, it has been elevated to an independent action, with the wording being "promoting technological innovation in AI models, intelligent agents, etc., and taking the lead in implementing applications in the automotive industry." In other words, the automotive industry has been selected as the first testing ground for "AI +".
The supporting measures are also highly practical: building an AI application pilot base for the automotive industry, having industry enterprises build intelligent computing facilities using a "combination of public and private" approach, jointly building trusted data spaces for production and manufacturing, autonomous driving, digital supply chains, and safety risk assessment, and ultimately promoting around 50 typical application scenarios.
Another easily overlooked aspect is the positioning of the document. In the "Proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan" released in October 2025, "NEVs" did not appear in the list of strategic emerging industries for the first time since the 12th Five-Year Plan; whereas the objective paragraph of this plan states that "the pillar position of the automotive industry in the national economy is further highlighted." Two different phrasings for the same thing correspond to two different sets of policy toolboxes.
Shifting the narrative from an "emerging industry to be supported" to a "pillar industry to be governed" is the prerequisite for understanding this document.
What Goals Need to be Achieved?
The overall goal in one sentence: By 2030, the advantages of the entire industrial chain will be further consolidated, entering the ranks of the world's automotive powers. The proportion of NEV passenger cars and commercial vehicles in the total sales of new cars in their respective fields in the domestic market will reach 70% and 40% respectively, and vehicles with autonomous driving functions will achieve large-scale application.
Below this are four sets of sub-goals, managing technology, industrial structure, internationalization, and economic and social benefits respectively.
In August alone, passenger cars reached 68% and commercial vehicles 49.3%
Let's look at those two proportions first. According to the domestic sales caliber of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in 2025, NEV passenger cars accounted for 54% of domestic passenger car sales, and commercial vehicles accounted for 26.9% of domestic commercial vehicle sales; in the first 8 months of 2026, the figures were 58.6% and 33.9% respectively; by August alone, they had become 68% and 49.3%. The commercial vehicle line crossed the 2030 target long ago, while passenger cars are still two percentage points away from 70%.
Calculated on a cumulative basis, passenger cars need to make up 11.4 percentage points over five years, averaging 2.3 points per year. For comparison, over the past five years, this proportion grew from less than 10% to 54%.
The previous round of targets was exceeded even more thoroughly. The 2020 plan set the target of "around 20% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025," but the actual figure in 2025 reached 47.9% (including exports) and 50.8% (domestic), exceeding the target by 2.4 times. This time, the target is compressed to be close to the current situation; it is hard to say this is not deliberate.
Three achieved, one already written into mandatory national standards
The situation is similar for the remaining quantitative indicators.
"Cultivate several complete vehicle enterprises entering the top ten in global sales." In 2025, BYD ranked 6th with 4.602 million units, SAIC ranked 7th with 4.508 million units, and Geely Holding ranked 9th with 4.116 million units, making it three already.
"Global Top 100 Component Enterprises": There are 15 Chinese companies on the 2025 Top 100 list.
Total labor productivity will increase by 15% compared to 2025, which averages 2.8% annually over five years.
The only one that needs explanation is 3.3 liters. This figure is not newly proposed in the plan; it is the corporate average fuel consumption target value set for 2030 by GB 27999-2025 "Evaluation Methods and Indicators for Fuel Consumption of Passenger Cars." This national standard has been implemented since January 1, 2026, which is about 48% stricter overall than the 2019 version, and includes the energy consumption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the calculation. This clause in the plan simply reiterates the already effective mandatory standard.
Instead, a few qualitative statements are harder. "Achieve highly automated driving in scenarios such as highways, urban expressways, and some urban roads," "the safety performance of vehicles equipped with autonomous driving systems significantly exceeds that of human drivers," and "achieve carbon peak before 2030." Writing the second sentence into the objectives means that a quantifiable safety benchmark must follow, otherwise there will be no way to assess it.
A few caliber reminders are placed here, which are easy to step on when paraphrasing:
70% and 40% are the proportions of total new car sales in the domestic market, excluding exports, corresponding to CAAM's "domestic sales proportion," which is not the same as the retail penetration rate of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
3.3 L/100km is the accounting value for corporate average fuel consumption, where the energy consumption of BEVs and PHEVs has been converted and included, which is not equal to the actual fuel consumption of fuel vehicles.
11.5 kWh/100km is the fleet average energy consumption for BEV passenger cars, which is a different set of indicators from the single-vehicle limit in GB 36980.1-2025 (not exceeding 15.1 kWh for models around 2 tons).
"Equipped with autonomous driving functions" does not equal L3; in Task 12 of the plan, "combined driving assistance" and "autonomous driving" are written separately as two sets of access requirements.
Among the five quantitative targets, three were already achieved on the day of issuance, and one was already written into mandatory national standards. The focus of this plan is not on the target column.
What Support is Provided?
Only three items directly correspond to funding, and all are existing policies
In the "Strengthening Organization and Implementation" section, there are only three items that directly correspond to real money:
Implementing the tax incentive policies for NEVs well, which means a 50% reduction in purchase tax in 2026-2027, with a tax reduction of no more than CNY 15,000 per NEV passenger car; supporting the "trade-in" of automobiles, where scrapping and updating to buy an NEV passenger car will be subsidized by 12% of the vehicle price, up to a maximum of CNY 20,000; and supporting NEVs going to the countryside, as well as the renewal of urban buses and power batteries. However, these three are all continuations, with no new additions.
The only one that might bring new money is that sentence in Task 1:
"Promote the establishment of the '15th Five-Year' National Key R&D Program Key Special Project in the field of intelligent connected NEVs." The scale of this funding will only be known when the special project is approved, but the direction is already fixed in Special Column 1: energy and power, intelligent chassis, intelligent connectivity, complete vehicle integration, as well as basic materials, software, and automotive chips, encompassing five directions.
Supporting measures also include the first-batch materials and first-edition software policies, as well as the venture capital guidance fund's approach of "investing early, investing small, investing long-term, and investing in hard technology."
The rest of the "support" is not about money. For infrastructure, four networks are provided:
5G/5G-A coverage and C-V2X direct communication roadside equipment for key cities and some highways;
Dedicated vehicle networking number planning and allocation, radio frequency supply, and heterogeneous computing power scheduling and sharing;
High-power charging layout, rural charging shortfall supplementation, and large-scale vehicle-grid interaction;
Digital upgrades of traffic lights, traffic signs, and traffic markings nationwide.
The overseas expansion column provides services: facilitation of domestic and foreign currency settlement, exchange rate risk avoidance products, increased underwriting support for export credit insurance, improved adaptability of China-Europe (Asia) railway express, encouragement to establish cross-brand overseas spare parts warehouses for key components, and research and formulation of compliance policy documents for overseas development.
For the circulation link, it involves deeply advancing pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption, deepening NEV auto insurance reforms and optimizing the benchmark rate for commercial auto insurance, and strengthening cross-regional circulation management of used cars.
The talent aspect is even further reaching: "exploring the establishment of disciplines related to intelligent electric vehicles," compiling a catalog of industry talent shortages, and relying on the National Excellent Engineer Practice Base and pilot verification platforms to build public training bases.
There are no new purchase subsidies or capacity investment subsidies throughout the text. The overseas expansion column is particularly restrained, providing only settlement, risk avoidance, credit insurance, logistics, and compliance. It avoids any tools that could be identified as export subsidies. Considering that Task 15 states "actively participating in the formulation of the international economic and trade rule system," this restraint reads more like a deliberate move.
In terms of organizational guarantee, it relies on the Inter-Ministerial Coordination Mechanism for the Development of the Energy-Saving and NEV Industry, formulating the division of key tasks and annual work priorities, and conducting dynamic monitoring, mid-term evaluation, and summary evaluation.
This round of support has shifted from "giving money to buy cars" to "providing rules, infrastructure, market access, and overseas expansion services." If you really want to watch for a new pool of funding, keep an eye on when the key special project under the National Key R&D Program is approved.
What is the Impact on China's Intelligent Automotive Industry?
Let's talk about intelligent driving first. In the first half of 2026, the penetration rate of new passenger cars equipped with L2-level combined driving assistance functions has already reached 70.5%. At this stage, what is most lacking is not the installation volume, but a set of rules to manage it. The plan breaks down this set of rules into three places:
Access: Task 12 requires improving the access management requirements for combined driving assistance and autonomous driving systems, perfecting the filing management measures for software and hardware upgrades, and strengthening the network access licensing management for connected terminals.
Standards: Special Column 5 requires accelerating the release and implementation of safety standards for autonomous driving systems, automatic parking systems, etc., and establishing an evaluation mechanism for the maturity and safety of autonomous driving technology. The testing and evaluation method integrates digital simulation and real-vehicle testing.
Monitoring: Special Column 6 requires building a three-level "national-local-enterprise" safety monitoring platform, unifying safety incident data interaction and management, and strengthening cross-departmental information sharing.
The sentence "perfecting the filing management measures for software and hardware upgrades" carries significant weight. After the filing system is implemented, OTA (Over-The-Air) updates will no longer be a matter for enterprises to unilaterally decide when to push and to whom. Also elevated are the access review requirements. Special Column 6 states the need to enhance the access review requirements for complete vehicle products and key systems and components such as power batteries, driving assistance, and autonomous driving systems, as well as the capability requirements for enterprises in R&D design, production and manufacturing, consistency assurance, and after-sales service guarantee.
The side of relaxation is equally clear. Special Column 4 requires the orderly promotion of access and road traffic for intelligent connected vehicles, supporting the large-scale application of vehicles equipped with autonomous driving systems, and promoting pilot applications of functional unmanned vehicles. Vehicles such as unmanned delivery vehicles and unmanned sweeping vehicles will finally have their own institutional norms.
The scope of vehicle-road-cloud is also expanding. So far, 20 pilot cities for "vehicle-road-cloud integration" applications have deployed over 60,000 sets of intelligent equipment, serving over 100,000 vehicles. Nationwide, more than 20,000 test demonstration licenses have been issued, over 57,000 kilometers of test roads have been opened, and cumulative testing has exceeded 220 million kilometers. The plan requires promoting the accelerated digital and connected upgrades in first- and second-tier key cities nationwide and some national highways, ensuring that important intersections and road sections have intelligent perception, edge computing, and communication capabilities, and supporting the construction of cross-region connected cloud control basic platforms. The term "pilot cities" in the document has been replaced with "first- and second-tier key cities nationwide."
Chips and basic software are listed separately in two places as shortcomings. Task 2 specifically names "key basic materials, operating systems, industrial software, automotive chips, and components," requiring the good use of first-batch materials and first-edition software policies; Article 5 of Special Column 1 is more detailed, grouping automotive operating system kernels, middleware, and functional software together, grouping simulation software for structure, fluid, dynamics, and processes together, and grouping computing, control, storage, and communication automotive chips and high-end sensors together. Special Column 3 fills the ecological link: formulating standards for interface specifications and data interaction between key component systems and basic software and hardware, breaking the "silos" of products and data, and cultivating a group of high-level open-source software projects. For domestic chip, middleware, and industrial software manufacturers, the certainty in these five years is higher than in the previous five.
Tasks 13 and 14 write anti-involution into the five-year plan
The capacity section is the toughest part of the entire text. Reading the four sentences of Task 13 together, the direction is very clear:
Strictly implementing the "Provisions on the Administration of Investment in the Automotive Industry" and strictly setting conditions for new independent NEV enterprise projects are to block new additions;
Increasing the intensity of mergers and reorganizations and cross-regional integration according to the law, and deeply advancing group management reforms are to promote concentration; promoting the orderly exit of backward and inefficient capacity through market-based and law-based means is to reduce existing stock;
Strengthening capacity warning and regulation management for power batteries is a separate track specifically for batteries. Task 14, on the other hand, presses both enterprises and local governments at the same time: on one hand, strengthening anti-monopoly, anti-unfair competition, and price law enforcement and justice, regulating the release of industry data information and enterprise account payments; on the other hand, regulating local governments' improper investment promotion through illegal provision of financial subsidies, tax and fee preferences, land preferences, and excessive allocation of resources.
The window to get a brand-new independent NEV complete vehicle qualification is basically closed; the remaining paths are to buy, merge, or use contract manufacturing. The days of second- and third-tier battery factories will not be any easier.
There are two other areas that are easily overlooked.
One is the aftermarket: Task 7 requires improving the information disclosure system for maintenance technology, accelerating the construction of an automotive maintenance technology standard system, and promoting the reduction of maintenance costs. Coupled with the "deepening NEV auto insurance reforms and optimizing the benchmark rate for commercial auto insurance" in the organization and implementation section, it targets the old problem of expensive maintenance and high premiums for NEVs.
The other is commercial vehicles: Special Column 4 lists a separate item to promote the large-scale application of new energy heavy trucks, requiring the improvement of the energy replenishment facility network layout, promoting the construction of cross-regional zero-carbon highway transport corridors for new energy heavy trucks, and exploring demonstration applications of heavy truck autonomous driving and promoting pilot zero-emission zones for freight. The reason the 40% target for commercial vehicles is set relatively loose is that the actionable measures lie in these scenario policies.
In the next five years, the competitive elements of intelligent driving will shift from "having it or not" to "passing market access or not," while the main thread on the complete vehicle side is the reduction in the number of players.
What is the Impact on the Overseas Expansion of China's Automotive Industry?
Domestic sales drop by 3.67 million units, exports increase by 2.86 million units
To understand why the plan lists internationalization as a separate chapter and equips it with a project, just look at this year's numbers. In the first 8 months of 2026, automobile production and sales both dropped by 3.8% year-on-year; during the same period, exports reached 7.153 million units, a year-on-year increase of 66.7%, already exceeding the 7.098 million units for the whole of 2025; domestic sales were 13.162 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. The proportion of exports in total sales rose from 18.6% in 2024 and 20.6% in 2025 to 35.2% in the first 8 months of this year.
Exports are evenly split between NEVs and fuel vehicles: 3.435 million NEVs and 3.718 million traditional fuel vehicles. CAAM's year-on-year expression for NEV exports is "1.2 times," which is a truncated value; the actual growth rate is higher.
The things the plan equips for overseas expansion are divided into three layers.
Task 15 manages rules and organization, requiring active participation in the formulation of the international economic and trade rule system, and "guiding the establishment of an international scientific and technological organization for collaborative innovation in intelligent connected NEVs."
Task 16 manages services: financially, it involves facilitation of domestic and foreign currency settlement, exchange rate risk avoidance products, and export credit insurance; logistically, it involves the adaptability of China-Europe (Asia) railway express and cross-brand overseas spare parts warehouses for key components; in terms of compliance, it involves researching and formulating relevant policy documents for overseas development compliance.
Special Column 7 focuses on brands and data:
On one hand, it is the China Brand Image Co-construction Action, guiding enterprises to develop internationally in a standardized, orderly, and coordinated manner, and promoting industry organizations to carry out self-discipline;
On the other hand, it explores launching pilot cooperation on cross-border data flow with key countries and regions, promoting bilateral regulatory mutual recognition and compliance connection, and providing systematic cross-border data compliance services through mechanisms such as cross-border trusted data spaces.
The cross-border data aspect is worth discussing separately. The hardest wall Chinese brands face in Europe is data. Issues such as localized storage, cross-border transmission, and regulatory mutual recognition are extremely costly for a single enterprise to negotiate. If the "cooperation pilot" and "bilateral regulatory mutual recognition" can truly be implemented, it will be more practical for brands entering Europe than any subsidy.
The half-sentence "promoting industry organizations to carry out self-discipline" should also not be read lightly. It shares the same logic as the domestic anti-involution in Task 14, meaning that price wars and disorderly competition in overseas markets are also within the regulatory field of vision.
One layer further out, Task 17, "Deepening Investment Cooperation in China," writes about creating a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized first-class business environment, supporting foreign-invested enterprises to deepen their roots in China, fully implementing national treatment for foreign-invested enterprises, and treating domestic and foreign-invested enterprises equally in government procurement and other activities. Putting this together with Task 15's "actively participating in the formulation of the international economic and trade rule system," the posture is clear: we will handle things according to national treatment on our side, and you shouldn't engage in discriminatory rules on your side. This is a document written for the domestic industry, but this paragraph is meant to be heard by the outside world.
The increments are all overseas, so internationalization is listed separately; and what is provided are all service-oriented tools, to avoid leaving any pretext for anti-subsidy investigations.
In Conclusion
The plan itself does not set penalty rules; the points deducted are from the standards and measures it points to
The easiest mistake in reading this plan is treating it as a document for boosting sales. The two figures of 70% and 40% were basically realized in August alone, the global top ten and top 100 components were already achieved on the day of issuance, and 3.3 liters is a reiteration of an effective national standard. The target column has been deliberately flattened.
Where it truly places its bets is in the special columns:
One bets on AI taking the lead in landing in the automotive industry,
One bets on the large-scale application of autonomous driving and vehicle-road-cloud,
One bets on the infrastructure for safety supervision,
And one more bets on the compliance channels for overseas expansion.
The support means have overall shifted from subsidies to rules, infrastructure, market access, and services. The only possible source of new funding is the special project under the National Key R&D Program that has not yet been approved.
For people in the industry, a more practical way to read it is to treat it as a five-year schedule. The already effective GB 27999-2025 ratio limits will tighten from 130% in 2026 to 100% in 2030, which is a hard constraint to be accounted for every year;
The filing management measures for software and hardware upgrades and autonomous driving safety standards will determine the release pace of intelligent driving teams;
Capacity warnings and mergers and reorganizations will determine how many complete vehicle enterprises can survive until 2030;
Cross-border data pilots will determine the cost for Chinese brands to enter Europe. The plan itself does not set penalty rules; the points deducted will be from the standards and measures it names.
The target column is conservative; the special columns are where this plan places its bets. Reading through those seven pages of special columns thoroughly will reveal the macro direction and trends of China's automotive industry.
References and Images
- 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry pdf
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