Cargo before passengers, isolation before integration, and suburbs before urban areas. 18 characters.
On May 20, 2025, at a press conference by the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission), it was mentioned for the first time. It has since been repeatedly emphasized on multiple occasions. On April 17, 2026, at the press conference for the "15th Five-Year Plan", it was stated for the third time—and this time, it has an official name: "Three Priors and Three Posts".
In less than eleven months, the same department, the same phrase, stated three times. Each time at a larger venue, each time with heavier finality.
Policy documents are issued every day, but the only 18 characters truly worth printing out and putting on the wall are these.
To laymen, these are principles. To insiders, this is sequence. To operators, this is money.
I | Three Sentences, One Timetable
These 18 characters do not govern "whether or not", but "who goes first and who goes second". Policies rarely say "no"; they only say "queue up". Those at the front of the line are businesses; those at the back are costs.
II | Cargo Before Passengers: Cash Flow Has a Sequence
Cargo does not complain; cargo does not get scared. If cargo is involved in an incident, you pay money; if people are involved, you pay with lives. Cargo scenarios: safety records are easy to build, insurance is cheap, and approvals are fast. Passenger scenarios: qualification costs are an order of magnitude higher, and trust costs are an order of magnitude higher still.
The same startup capital, two ways to spend it: getting cargo operations right first means using others' cargo to accumulate your own safe flight hours. Jumping straight into passenger transport means using your own money to pay tuition for the entire industry.
This sequence was not brainstormed in some office; it was derived by the market itself. Look across the ocean—the leading companies that raised massive funds on the story of "urban passenger air taxis" prioritized the mass production and deployment of unmanned cargo models after getting the money; the focus of the new generation procurement budgets from major overseas clients is also entirely on cargo and logistical support.
Money all over the world is voting for "cargo before passengers".
In 2026, the overall scale of the low-altitude economy is expected to exceed CNY 1 trillion (according to CCID Research Institute), with the eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) market at approximately CNY 9.5 billion (according to China Commerce Industry Research Institute), accounting for less than 1%. This is not about hitting the brakes for the industry; it is telling you: the current money is in UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), infrastructure, and operational services. Passenger transport is incremental, not existing stock. Earn the money from the existing stock first, then wait for the wind of the increment.
Cargo builds records; passengers spend trust. Records generate money; trust must be topped up first.
III | Isolation Before Integration: Airspace Has a Sequence
Isolated airspace is a dedicated lane; you can fly however you want within the boundaries. Integrated airspace requires sharing the sky with scheduled flights and other people's UAVs, involving queuing, coordination, and system integration, which means high costs and long cycles.
After the new Civil Aviation Law takes effect on July 1, for registered flights between 0 and 120 meters, the threshold for isolation itself is still lowering. At that press conference, the NDRC also responded to the "difficulty in approval", stating that they are studying and promoting the local "scan-to-fly" practice."
See? The threshold is lowering, the procedures are simplifying, but the sequence—not a single character has changed.
Therefore, the isolation period is not for you to wait; it is for you to accumulate: accumulate flight data, accumulate failure rates, accumulate response processes. These are all bargaining chips for negotiating integrated airspace in the future.
Isolation is not about being locked up; it is about giving you a free leveling-up zone.
IV | Suburbs Before Urban Areas: Site Selection Has a Sequence
Suburbs have low population density, fewer complaints, cheap rent, and a friendly emergency radius. Urban areas have high passenger flow, but all constraints are multiplicative.
As mentioned in a previous article, when looking at a city, first check "whether anyone can achieve normalized flight operations". The premise of normalized flight operations is precisely flying in the suburbs first. County-level areas dare to provide scenarios, data, and policies. But remember that dividing line: contracts count as revenue; no contracts count as surprises.
Urban airspace is the most expensive, but the entry tickets are sold in the suburbs.
V | Put Together, It Is a Battle Map
Going forward: start in the suburbs, in isolated airspace, with cargo. Get the system right, accumulate records, accumulate data, accumulate cash flow, and then move towards integration, towards urban areas, towards passengers.
Those who go in reverse have all paid tuition: those who started with urban passenger transport are now either waiting for approvals or waiting for financing.
What the policy gives you is not a traffic light, but a navigation system. Following the navigation saves fuel; ignoring it wrecks the car.
It is recommended to copy down these 18 characters. Next time someone tells you, "We are doing urban passenger commuting," throw these three sentences at them and ask how much tuition they plan to pay.
Which stage are you at? Cargo, isolation, suburbs, or are you already moving to the next stop? Let's chat in the comments—your position determines how you calculate your next bill.
Taking off is a capability; staying in the business is true mastery.
And the mastery of "staying in the business" never comes from a sudden flash of inspiration on a single day, but from starting today and steadily consolidating qualifications, solidifying scenarios, and夯实 -> consolidating data day after day.
—— This article was first published on the WeChat official account "Jingzhe: Summer by the Small River" —— Please cite the source when reprinting. Support original content, protect original content, everyone's responsibility.