美国新关税波及泰国，中国PCB厂“南向战略”受阻

Note: The English version is provided below.

摘要

本周，泰国正在积极和特朗普政府进行关税协商，希望扭转8月1日即将生效的36%的关税。该国财政部长透露，他将向美国提出一揽子优惠条件，比如削减70%的对美贸易顺差，五年内实现双边贸易平衡，同时还对90%的美国进口产品征收零关税，以换取美国对泰国的关税降至18%-20%区间。如果谈判成功，泰国将和同为制造业新兴基地的越南处于相似的关税水平；谈判失败，2025年下半年泰国出口总值将大幅萎缩，全年经济增长将从去年的2.5%滑落到1.4%。

自2023年起，泰国因其税收、用地的优惠政策、低廉的人工成本以及较为完善的制造配套能力，成为中国PCB企业首选的东南亚制造基地。目前，深南电路、沪士电子、东山精密、世运电路、胜宏科技、四会富仕等近30家中资企业已在泰设厂并扩产。对于此次可能的关税打击，中企将考虑多条对策：一是和北美客户分担关税成本，二是提高泰国本地的采购比例和附加值比例，适应美国日趋严格的“原产地”认定标准，三是暂缓泰国新建产线和扩展计划，转向其他国家布局，四是积极拓展日本、欧盟等其他国际市场，降低对美国客户的销售依赖。

评论

即使产能已转移出中国大陆，中资企业仍可能因为各种原因受到波及。对于企业高管而言，“多国布局+原产地优化+客户共担”已成为新常态。

China’s PCB Expansion in Thailand Faces U.S. Tariff Wall

Summary

This week, Thailand is actively negotiating with the Trump administration to reverse the impending 36% tariff set to take effect on August 1. The Thai Finance Minister revealed that the country will offer a package of concessions, including cutting its trade surplus with the U.S. by 70% and achieving bilateral trade balance within five years. Thailand also proposes zero tariffs on 90% of U.S. imports in exchange for the U.S. reducing its tariff on Thai goods to the 18%-20% range. If successful, Thailand would enjoy a tariff level similar to Vietnam, another emerging manufacturing hub. If talks fail, Thailand’s total exports could shrink significantly in the second half of 2025, and full-year GDP growth may fall from last year’s 2.5% to just 1.4%.

Since 2023, Thailand has become the top Southeast Asian destination for Chinese PCB manufacturers, thanks to its favorable tax policies, affordable land and labor, and well-developed manufacturing ecosystem. Currently, nearly 30 Chinese companies—including Shennan Circuits, Wus Printed Circuit, Dongshan Precision, Olympic PCB, Victory Giant Technology, and Sihui Fuji Technology—have established or expanded operations in Thailand. In response to the potential tariff blow, Chinese firms are considering several strategies:

• Sharing tariff costs with North American clients.
• Increasing local procurement and value-added content to meet the U.S.’s stricter rules of origin.
• Pausing new plant construction and expansion in Thailand and shifting focus to other countries.
• Expanding into markets like Japan and the EU to reduce reliance on U.S. customers.

Comment

Even after relocating production out of mainland China, Chinese firms remain vulnerable to geopolitical and trade risks. For corporate executives, a strategy of “multi-country layout + origin optimization + cost-sharing with clients” has become the new normal.