台积电在AI热潮中上调2025年营收预期

Note: The English version is provided below.

摘要

台积电（TSMC）今日公布2025年第二季度财报，合并营收达321.99亿美元，同比增长38.6%；净利润为137.33亿美元，同比增长60.7%。本季毛利率为58.6%，营业利润率为49.6%，净利率为42.7%。先进制程（7纳米及以下）贡献了晶圆营收的74%，其中5纳米与3纳米分别占36%与24%。 

 展望第三季度，公司预计营收将在318亿至330亿美元之间，毛利率维持在55.5%至57.5%，营业利润率为45.5%至47.5%。尽管新台币兑美元升值超过11%，对营收构成压力，公司仍维持全年毛利率目标在53%以上。管理层强调，AI基础设施建设仍在持续推进，先进制程产能利用率维持高位。 

评论

当前AI芯片（如Nvidia H100、AMD MI300）对先进制程（3nm及以下）依赖极高，而TSMC是唯一具备大规模量产能力的代工厂。尽管市场曾因中国DeepSeek事件对AI芯片的支出前景产生疑虑，但TSMC的订单表现显示，全球科技巨头仍在大幅加码AI基础设施建设。 

 对投资者而言，这一信号强化了对先进制程长期成长性的信心；对企业高管而言，如何提前锁定代工资源将成为战略重点。与此同时，台积电在美国亚利桑那、日本熊本、德国德累斯顿的扩产计划也将成为未来两年全球AI算力布局的关键变量。 

TSMC Raises 2025 Revenue Outlook Amid AI Boom 

Summary

TSMC today announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting consolidated revenue of US$32.2 billion, up 38.6% year-over-year, and net income of US$13.73 billion, up 60.7%. The company posted a gross margin of 58.6%, operating margin of 49.6%, and net profit margin of 42.7%. Advanced process technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 5nm and 3nm contributing 36% and 24%, respectively. 

Looking ahead to Q3, TSMC expects revenue to range between US$31.8 billion and US$33.0 billion, with a gross margin of 55.5% to 57.5% and operating margin of 45.5% to 47.5%. Despite the New Taiwan dollar appreciating more than 11% against the US dollar—putting pressure on revenue—the company reaffirmed its full-year gross margin target of 53% or higher. Management emphasized that AI infrastructure buildout remains robust, and utilization of advanced process capacity continues to run at high levels. 

Comment

Current-generation AI chips (such as Nvidia’s H100 and AMD’s MI300) are heavily reliant on advanced nodes (3nm and below), and TSMC remains the only foundry capable of mass-producing at this scale. While recent events—such as concerns raised by DeepSeek—have cast doubt on the sustainability of AI capital spending, TSMC’s order momentum suggests that global tech giants are continuing to double down on AI infrastructure. 

For investors, this reinforces long-term confidence in the growth trajectory of advanced nodes. For corporate executives, it highlights the strategic urgency of securing foundry capacity in an increasingly supply-constrained environment. Meanwhile, TSMC’s expansion plans in Arizona (US), Kumamoto (Japan), and Dresden (Germany) are set to become critical variables in the global AI compute landscape over the next two years.