目标产能是全球现有产能50倍，马斯克的芯片工厂靠谱吗？

在智能体轮番炸场之后，以每年超过1太瓦当量的算力产出为目标（涵盖逻辑芯片、存储与封装）的TERAFAB晶圆厂，作为工程实现能力的代表，成为今年科技圈的又一剂猛药。作为马斯克团队“走向星际文明”蓝图的重要一环，TERAFAB将为Tesla（特斯拉）和SpaceX生产芯片，目标产能是全球现有晶圆产能的50倍，其中80%用于太空，20%用于地面。更值得注意的是，该晶圆厂将构建包含光刻掩模版制造、芯片制造、芯片封测、芯片设计的“递归循环”，且以每天（且滞后不超过7天）的频率迭代新的芯片设计。这一打破“历史经验”的超规格芯片制造厂，具备必要性和可行性吗？

纯纯自用，需要那么大产能吗？

结合马斯克在TERAFAB发布会（北京时间3月22日上午）的演讲及X平台回复网友的信息，TERAFAB包含两座晶圆厂，设计生产不同的芯片。一类是针对边缘推理进行优化的芯片，主要用于Optimus机器人和汽车，尤其是Optimus（马斯克预计人形机器人的产量会是汽车产量的10到100倍）；另一类是为太空设计的高功率芯片，会面向高能离子、光子以及电子积聚等来自太空环境的干扰进行优化，并尽量减少散热器重量。

从目前的规划来看，TERAFAB是特斯拉和SpaceX的内部芯片厂，生产定制化的芯片，无对外服务计划。

纯纯自用，有必要在现有的供应体系之外另辟晶圆厂吗？据马斯克在发布现场的“点名”致谢，三星、台积电、美光都是特斯拉或SpaceX的供应商。但在他看来，别说这几家头部厂商，就算全球晶圆厂的产能加起来，也远远不够打造1太瓦算力所需的芯片产量。

“如果你把地球上所有晶圆厂加起来，它们只占我们太瓦项目（或TERAFAB项目）所需产能的大约2%。”马斯克说，“我们希望它们（三星、台积电、美光）能尽可能快地扩张产能，我们会买下它们所有的芯片，但它们的最大扩张速度是有限的，这个速度远远低于我们的期望。所以，要么我们建造TERAFAB，要么我们就得不到这些芯片。”

可获取的新算力（左）与Tesla、SpaceX期望算力（右）的对比（来源：TERAFAB发布会）

对于具体需要什么芯片、多少芯片，特斯拉进行了更详细的计算，并发布在X平台上。该推文显示，为了尽可能多地捕获太阳能，需要每年将1亿吨的太阳能捕获设备送入太空，这需要“超大规模的能力”，包括将数百万吨级载荷送入轨道的发射能力、太阳能AI卫星，以及数百万台特斯拉Optimus机器人参与建设。

要实现上述目标，仅Optimus机器人就需要100-200吉瓦当量的芯片，再加上用于太阳能AI卫星的太瓦级芯片。这一需求已超过当前全球所有芯片制造商的总产能，甚至超过它们到2030年的预计产能（基于现有扩产规划）。TERAFAB的使命是填补当前芯片产能与未来需求之间的缺口，使“星辰大海的未来”加速到来。

除了太空能源建设，马斯克对人形机器人市场规模的信心远超电动汽车市场。人形机器人将成为TERAFAB所生产的边缘推理芯片的主要市场，以及TERAFAB“用于地面的20%产能”的主要构成部分。“地球上每年的汽车产量大约是一亿辆，我预计人形机器人的年产量将达到十亿到一百亿台之间，这个量很大，特斯拉的目标是生产其中非常大的一部分。”马斯克说。

“递归循环”的芯片生产链路，实施起来有多难？

除了“行星级”的产能目标，TERAFAB的另一大看点是构建“递归循环”（recursive loop）的芯片生产路径。马斯克表示，在TERAFAB这一先进制造晶圆厂中，将配备制造任何类型芯片（逻辑芯片、存储芯片）所需的所有设备，以及制造光刻掩模版所需的所有设备。“在单一建筑内，我们可以制造光刻掩模版、制造芯片、测试芯片，再制造下一个掩模版，并形成用于改进芯片设计的、极快的‘递归循环’。”

马斯克在X平台回复网友时进一步介绍了如何在Terafab实现更高的芯片生产和设计迭代效率（左侧为原文，右侧为X自带的谷歌翻译）。

熟悉SpaceX的读者，应该会觉得这种递归循环的理念有些耳熟，因为SpaceX在火箭制造上，就执行了类似的“迭代设计”理念。

据航天业记者艾瑞克·伯格所著的《马斯克：火箭革命》，要构建火箭这样复杂的系统，基本上只有两种路径可以选择——线性设计和迭代设计。其中线性设计会先设定初始目标、明确所需条件，通过大量测试确保各子系统达标，再进行组装。其特点是进入开发阶段之前需要花费数年的时间进行工程策划，一旦进入制造阶段就很难对设计进行修改。而迭代式设计根据目标启动后，会很快进入概念设计、台架测试和原型开发环节，其精髓在于尽快进行样机制造和测试，发现漏洞、再做调整。SpaceX团队在不断重复的过程中，捕捉主要缺陷，继而完善设计、持续迭代，开发出更为完善的产品，从而加快了项目开发过程。

但这套理念，要兑现在芯片制造——尤其是尖端制程的芯片制造上，可谓关卡重重。虽然马斯克没有在TERAFAB发布会提到该晶圆厂的工艺制程，但SpaceX董事Steve Jurvetson等业内人士均透露，TERAFAB将以2nm为目标。这意味着这套“递归循环”的芯片链路不仅非常难，还极其贵。

首先面临的是设备获取问题。制造先进制程芯片所需的EUV光刻机，目前全球仅ASML能够量产，交付周期长，且在当前人工智能引领的超强周期带动下，订单积压量大幅增长。截至2025年底，ASML的未交付订单金额已达388亿欧元，超越其2025年全年的净销售额（327亿欧元）。如果TERAFAB要打造先进芯片制造厂，且以每年1太瓦当量的算力产出为目标，订购和获取设备就需要数年周期。

其次是良率问题。即便TERAFAB建成产线，在先进制程尤其是2nm及以下尖端制程上，也会面临良率提升的挑战，尤其尖端制程导致的伴生量子隧穿效应，致使许多随机误差的出现，即便台积电、三星等人才储备和工程经验丰富的头部厂商，也在工艺优化和良率提升上颇费功夫。

其三是巨额的流片成本。据业内测算，2nm流片一次的金额高达约1亿美元。如果马斯克要构建“设计—制造—封测—改进设计”的高效循环，将面临高昂的流片成本。

不过，马斯克在工程实现和项目兑现上的“信誉分”，还是让产业界对于TERAFAB抱有更积极的预期。

另外，马斯克未必会照搬现有的芯片工艺流程。他在演讲中表示，TERAFAB的递归循环链路“会推动计算领域的物理学极限”，且团队“会尝试各种疯狂的东西”，也许会走向不一样的技术路径。如他所言，特斯拉起步时，很多人认为电动车难成气候，如今特斯拉每年生产200万辆电动车；SpaceX起步时，很多人认为可重复使用火箭是不可能的，即便造出来也不具备经济上的可行性，如今SpaceX已经完成超过500次火箭着陆。无论TERAFAB能否如期交付，在研发和建设过程中的新成果，以及碰撞出的“无意识创新”，都值得产业界期待。

马斯克TERAFAB发布会演讲全文

We have a profound, profound, the important announcement to make, which is the most epic chip building exercised in history by far.

我们要宣布一个非常、非常重要的消息，这是迄今为止最史诗级的芯片建造工程。

This is really going to take things to the next level. So yeah, a level probably people aren't even contemplating right now. This is not in the……I would call this sort of an out of context problem. It's not in their context. So we're going to adjust the context by a few orders of magnitude here.

这真的会把事情提升到下一个层次。是的，一个人们现在可能甚至还没有想到的层次。这不在……我称之为一种“脱离语境”的问题。它不在他们的语境之内。所以，我们准备在这里将语境调整几个数量级。

It's a joint effort. I'm pressing the button. But the button is not working. Although we are okay. So yeah, we aspire to be a galactic civilization. So I think the future that everyone……most people I think would agree is the most exciting is one where we are out there among the stars, where we are not forever confined one planet, that we become a multi-planet species.

我们立志成为一个星际文明。所以我认为，大家……我想大多数人会同意的、最激动人心的未来是，我们存在于群星之间，我们不会永远被束缚在一颗行星上，我们会成为一个多行星物种。

Like the best science fiction that you've ever read, Star Trek or Iain Banks or Asimov or Heinlein, and we want to make that real. Yeah, not just fiction, turn science fiction to science fact. That's the glorious, exciting future that I certainly look forward to, and it's worth considering, sort of like, how would you rate civilizations?

就像你读过的最好的科幻小说，《星际迷航》、伊恩·班克斯、阿西莫夫或海因莱因，我们希望将其变为现实。是的，不仅仅是科幻，把科幻变成科学事实。这就是那个辉煌、激动人心的未来，我当然非常期待。而且值得思考的是，比如，你如何给文明评级？

So there was a physicist, I think he was Russian in the sixties, Kardashev. He thought about at a high level, how would you consider any given civilization? And he said, well, if you're type one, you're using most the energy of your planet. And we actually still have quite a way to go to be properly as type one. We're still using a tiny fraction of the sun's energy that reaches our planet. But the earth only receives about half a billionth of the sun's energy, so the sun is truly enormous.

有一位物理学家，我想是上世纪六十年代的俄罗斯人，叫卡尔达肖夫。他从一个很高的层面思考，你如何评价任何一个文明？他说，如果你是I型文明，你正在使用你所在行星的大部分能量。而我们实际上离真正成为I型文明还有相当长的路要走。我们现在使用的能量仍然只是到达地球的太阳能中极小的一部分。但地球只接收到太阳能量的约五十亿分之一，所以太阳真的非常巨大。

The, the sun is 99.8% of all mass in the solar system. So sometimes people will ask me, like, what about, you know other power sources of the power earth. Like, what about fusion on earth? Well, that is unfortunately very small, because the sun is 99.8% of mass in the solar system, and Jupiter is about 0.1%, and earth is in the miscellaneous category. We are, I guess Carl Sagan I think might have said, "earth is like a tiny dust mote in a vast darkness", very very small. The sun is enormous.

太阳，它占据了太阳系总质量的99.8%。所以有时人们会问我，那地球上的其他能源呢？比如地球上的核聚变？嗯，不幸的是，那非常小，因为太阳占了太阳系99.8%的质量，木星大约占0.1%，而地球属于“其他杂项”类别。我们是，我想卡尔·萨根可能说过，“地球就像广阔黑暗中的一颗微小尘埃”，非常非常小。太阳是巨大的。

So the way to actually scale civilization is to scale power in space. This is necessarily true because we actually capture such a tiny amount of the sun's energy on earth, because we're just a tiny dust mote. Another way to think of it is roughly like electricity production on Earth of all of civilization, is only about a trillionth of the sun's energy, which means if you increase civilizational power output by a million, you would still only be a millionth of the sun's energy.

所以，真正扩展文明的方式是扩展太空中的能量。这必然是正确的，因为我们在地球上只捕获了太阳能量中微不足道的一小部分，因为我们只是一颗微小的尘埃。另一种思考方式是，整个地球文明的总发电量大约只是太阳能量的一万亿分之一。这意味着，如果你将文明的发电量提高一百万倍，你仍然只是太阳能量的一百万分之一。

I mean, it's awe-inspiring to consider that just how tiny we are in the grand scheme of things. And yeah, we often get sort of caught up in these sort of squabbles on earth that are really very sort of minor things when you consider the grandness of the universe.

我的意思是，想想我们在宇宙宏图中是多么渺小，这令人心生敬畏。是啊，我们经常陷入地球上这些微不足道的争吵中，当你考虑到宇宙的宏大时，这些真的都是非常琐碎的事情。

And so I think it is important actually to consider the grandness of the universe. And what we can do that is much greater than what we're done before, as opposed to worry about sort of small squabbles on Earth type of thing, and not much point in that.

所以我认为，实际上，思考宇宙的宏大是很重要的。以及我们能做的比我们过去所做的要宏大得多的事情，而不是去担心地球上那些琐碎的争吵之类的事情，那没什么意义。

Yeah, we want to be a civilization that extends to the galaxy with spaceships that anyone can go anywhere they want at any time. That would be epic. And have a city on the moon, cities on mars, populate the solar system, and send spaceships to other star systems. That sounds like the best possible future.

是的，我们希望成为一个能延伸到银河系的文明，拥有宇宙飞船，让任何人可以在任何时候去任何他们想去的地方。那将是史诗般的。在月球上建一座城市，在火星上建城市，在太阳系里繁衍生息，并向其他恒星系统发送飞船。那听起来是最棒的未来。

So to do that, we need to harness the power of the sun, so a TERAFAB while it is enormous, a terawatt of compute per year is enormous by our sort of civilizational standards.

所以，要做到这一点，我们需要利用太阳的力量。因此，TERAFAB，虽然它很庞大，每年1太瓦的计算能力，以我们当前的文明标准来看是极其巨大的。

It is still just one step along the way of being even a Kardashev. You still have a long way to go to even be a Kardashev two level civilization, and you're not even registering as a Kardashev three. So it's a very big thing by current human standards, but still small in the grand scheme. And it's very difficult for humans. So to accomplish this very difficult goal really requires a combination of efforts, of SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla working together to create this epic terrifying project.

但它仍然只是走向卡尔达肖夫文明等级的一步。要成为II型文明，你还有很长的路要走，更不用说III型文明了。所以按当前人类标准这是件大事，但在宏观图景中依然渺小。这对人类来说非常困难。所以，要实现这个非常困难的目标，确实需要SpaceX、xAI和特斯拉共同努力，来创造这个史诗般的、令人敬畏的项目。

And Tesla and xAI and SpaceX have all done amazing things that people did not think would be done before, so there's the Giga Texas Fab here, there's you know the Optimus robot that's being built. There's a global supercharging network. There's really quite a lot. And it wasn't that long ago when people thought electric cars wouldn't amount to anything, and there were basically no electronic cars for sale when Tesla started, and people said it was impossible. And now Tesla is making two million electric cars a year.

特斯拉、xAI和SpaceX都完成了人们以前认为不可能完成的惊人成就。比如这里有得克萨斯超级工厂，有正在制造的擎天柱机器人，有全球超级充电网络。真的相当多。就在不久之前，人们还认为电动车成不了气候。特斯拉刚起步时，基本上没有电动车在售，人们说那是不可能的。而现在特斯拉每年生产200万辆电动车。

And xAI, although it's a new company, now part of SpaceX has also built the first gigawatt scale computer cluster, which in record time. Jensen Huang from a video said he'd never seen anything built so fast in his life before. So a great compliment from NVIDIA.

而xAI，虽然是一家新公司，现在已经是SpaceX的一部分，也建造了首个千兆瓦级的计算机集群，而且创下了纪录。黄仁勋在视频中说他这辈子从没见过建造得这么快的东西。所以这是来自英伟达的巨大赞誉。

And then SpaceX, well, I guess you can read for yourself. I mean you already know. I mean the reusable rockets, people said that reusable rockets weren't possible. And even if you did do them, they wouldn't be economically feasible. So we did them and then we made them economically feasible. And now we've landed over 500 times. And then we did the Falcon Heavy, and now we're doing Starship.

至于SpaceX，我想你可以自己了解。我的意思是你已经知道了。我是说可重复使用火箭，人们说可重复使用火箭是不可能的。就算你做到了，它们在经济上也不可行。所以我们做到了，并且让它们在经济上可行。现在我们已经着陆超过500次。然后我们做了猎鹰重型，现在我们正在做星舰。

And Starship is a critical piece of the puzzle because in order to scale compute and scale power, you have to go to space, which means that you need massive payload to space, and  Starship will enable that. So let's give you sort of just a sense of scale. We've got Optimus there, Optimus for scale.

而星舰是拼图中的关键一块，因为为了扩展计算能力和扩展能量，你必须进入太空，这意味着你需要将巨大的有效载荷送入太空，而星舰将实现这一点。所以我们来给你们一个大概的规模概念。这里有擎天柱，用它来做个参照。

And Optimus is about five eleven. So it gives you a sense of the size of the Starship B3 rocket. Starship B4 will be much longer actually. The Starship B4 will make Starship B3 kind of short. So we'll expand with Starship B3 to 200 tones of payload to orbit, from a hundred tones, we start with B3.

擎天柱大约五英尺十一英寸（约180厘米）。所以这能让你们感受一下星舰B3火箭的大小。星舰B4实际上会更长很多。星舰B4会让星舰B3显得很短。我们将通过星舰B3，将轨道有效载荷从100吨扩展到200吨，我们从B3开始。

And then you can see, that's just a rough approximation of the Mini version of the AI set. So that's roughly 100 kilowatts. It's showing the solar panels and the radiator to scale. So for some reason, there has been a bizarre debate about radiators in space.

然后你们可以看到，这只是AI套件迷你版的一个粗略示意。那大约是100千瓦。它按比例展示了太阳能电池板和散热器。因为某种原因，最近关于太空散热器有一个奇怪的争论。

It's safe to say SpaceX knows how to do heat rejection in space with ten thousand satellites in orbit, might know a thing or two. So you can see the radiator is actually quite small relative to the solar panels, and we call that the mini-sat since that's just 100 kilowatts, we expect future satellites to probably go to the megawatt range.

可以很肯定地说，SpaceX知道如何在太空中散热，毕竟有上万颗卫星在轨运行，可能对此略知一二。所以你可以看到，相对于太阳能电池板，散热器实际上相当小，我们称之为迷你卫星，因为它只有100千瓦，我们预计未来的卫星可能将达到兆瓦级。

So in order to get to the terawatts of compute per year, you need about ten million tons to orbit per year and at 100 kilowatts per ton. So we're confident this is feasible, like no new physics or impossible things are required to get there. So I'm confident actually that SpaceX will get to 10 million tons to orbit per year.

因此，要实现每年太瓦级别的计算能力，你需要每年将约一千万吨载荷送入轨道，每吨载荷对应100千瓦功率。所以我们相信这是可行的，不需要新的物理学知识或不可能的事情来实现它。所以我相信SpaceX确实能实现每年一千万吨的轨道运载能力。

And then we're building up to a terawatt of solar, so that we will solve the solar problem, the power generation. So then the key missing ingredients is therefore a  of compute. So this announcement is about solving the key missing ingredient.

然后我们将建造1太瓦的太阳能发电能力，这样我们就能解决太阳能问题，即发电问题。所以，剩下的关键缺失部分就是1太瓦的计算能力。因此，这次宣布正是为了解决这个关键缺失的部分。

To give you a sense of what we're talking about, the current output of AI compute is roughly 20 gigawatts per year. This chart explains why we need to build the TERAFAB. Because all of the rest of the output from Earth is about 2% of what we need. So if you add up all the fabs on earth combined, they're only about 2% of what we need for the Terawatt Project or TERAFAB Project.

为了让你们了解我们谈论的规模，目前全球AI计算能力的年产量大约是20吉瓦。这张图表解释了为什么我们需要建造TERAFAB。因为地球上其他所有（芯片厂）的产量大约只占我们需求量的2%。所以，如果你把地球上所有晶圆厂加起来，它们只占我们太瓦项目（或TERAFAB项目）所需产能的大约2%。

So you know, we certainly want our existing supply chain, to be clear. We're very grateful to our existing supply chain, to Samsung, TSMC, Micron and others. And we would like them to expand as quickly as they can, and we will buy all of their chips. I have said these exact words to them, but there's a maximum rate at which they're comfortable expanding, but that rate is a much less than we would like. And so we either built the TERAFAB or we don't have the chips. And we need the chips, so we're gonna build TERAFAB.

所以，我想明确表示，我们当然希望利用现有的供应链。我们对现有的供应链非常感激，包括三星、台积电、美光以及其他公司。我们希望他们能尽可能快地扩张，我们会买下他们所有的芯片。我已经对他们说过这些原话。但他们能接受的最大扩张速度是有限的，而这个速度远远低于我们期望的速度。所以，要么我们建造TERAFAB，要么我们就得不到这些芯片。而我们需要这些芯片，所以我们要建造TERAFAB。

And we're starting off with an advanced technology fab here in Austin. I believe governor Abbott is in the audience, I'd like to thank Governor Abbott and the state of Texas for the support.

我们将从在奥斯汀建造一个先进技术晶圆厂开始。我相信阿博特州长也在现场，我想感谢阿博特州长和得克萨斯州的支持。

So in the advanced technology fab, we will have all of the equipment necessary to make a chip of any kind: logical, memory. And we will also have all of the equipment necessary to make the lithography masks. So in a single building, we can create a lithography mask, make the chip, test the chip, make another mask, and have an incredibly fast recursive loop for improving the chip design.

在这个先进技术晶圆厂里，我们将配备制造任何类型芯片所需的所有设备：逻辑芯片、存储芯片。我们还将配备制造光刻掩模版所需的所有设备。所以，在一个单一的建筑里，我们可以制造光刻掩模版，制造芯片，测试芯片，再制造另一个掩模版，并形成一个用于改进芯片设计的、极快的递归循环。

To the best of my knowledge, this doesn't exist anywhere in the world, where you've got everything necessary to build logic, memory, and do packaging and test it, and then do the masks, improve the masks and just keep looping it. So we're not just going to do conventional compute in this. I think there's some very interesting new physics that is potentially, that actually I'm confident will work, it's just a question of when.

据我所知，这在世界上任何地方都不存在——在一个地方拥有制造逻辑芯片、存储芯片、进行封装测试、然后制作掩模版、改进掩模版并持续循环所需的一切。在这个工厂里，我们不只是做传统的计算。我认为还有一些非常有趣的新物理学可能性，实际上我确信它们会奏效，只是时间问题。

So this is really going to push the limited physics in compute, and we're going to try a bunch of wild and crazy things, which you can do if you have got that fast iteration loop. That I can't emphasize enough the importance of being able to make a chip, test it and and then change the design, do another one and have that in a single building. I think that our recursive improvement with that situation is probably in order of magnitude, better than anything else in the world.

所以，这真的会推动计算领域的物理学极限。我们还会尝试各种疯狂的东西，如果你有那种快速迭代循环，你就能做到。我无法强调，能够在一个建筑里制造芯片、测试它、然后改变设计、再做下一个，这有多么重要。我认为，在这种情况下，我们的递归改进速度可能比世界上任何其他地方都要好上一个数量级。

So broadly speaking, we expect to make two kinds of chips. One will be optimized for edge inference, so that will be used primarily in Optimus and in the cars, but especially in Optimus because I expect the robots, humanoid robots, to be made 10 to 100 times more than the volume of cars.

所以，总的来说，我们预计会制造两种芯片。一种将针对边缘推理进行优化，主要用于擎天柱机器人和汽车，尤其是在擎天柱上。因为我预计人形机器人的产量会是汽车产量的10到100倍。

So you know if vehicle production on earth is about a hundred million vehicles a year, and I expect human robot production to be somewhere between a billion and ten billion units a year. So it's a lot. Tesla is going to make a very significant percentage of those is our goal.

你知道，地球上每年的汽车产量大约是一亿辆，而我预计人形机器人的年产量将在十亿到一百亿台之间。所以这个量很大。特斯拉的目标是生产其中非常大的一部分。

And then we need a high power chip that is designed for space, that takes into account the more difficult environment in space, where you've got high energy ions, photons, you've got electron build up. It's a hostile environment in space. So you want to design the chip, you want to optimize it for space, and you also want to generally run it a little hotter than you would normally run a chip on earth, to minimize the radiator mass.

然后，我们需要一种为太空设计的高功率芯片，它要考虑到太空中的更恶劣环境，那里有高能离子、光子，还有电子积聚。太空是一个恶劣的环境。所以你要设计芯片，你要为太空优化它，而且你通常希望它比在地球上正常运行的芯片温度高一点，以尽量减少散热器的质量。

So they're just a bunch of constrains that you design something differently in space, than you would on the ground. And for the space compute, my guess is that is the vast majority of the compute. Because you're power constraint on Earth, that's why I think it's probably a hundred to two hundred gigawatts a year of terrestrial chips, and probably on the order of a terawatt of chips in space. Just because of power constrains on the ground, that's probably how it ends up.

所以，有一系列约束条件要求你在太空设计东西的方式与在地面上不同。对于太空计算，我猜测它将占据计算能力的绝大部分。因为在地球上你受到功率限制，所以我认为地球上的芯片年产量大概在一百到两百吉瓦，而在太空中的芯片年产量可能达到1太瓦左右。只是因为地面上的功率限制，最终的结果可能会是这样。

Space has this advantage that it's always sunny, it's very nice. So I actually think that the cost of deploying AI in space will drop below the cost of terrestrial AI, it's much sooner than most people expect.

太空有一个优势，那里总是阳光明媚，非常好。所以我认为，实际上，在太空部署AI的成本会降到低于地面AI成本的时间点，会比大多数人预期的早得多。

I think it may be only two or three years, before it is actually lower cost to AI chips to space than it is on the ground. Because in space, you don't need much in the way of batteries, because it's always sunny, and the solar power you're going to get at least five or more times the solar power you get in space versus the ground, because you don't have atmospheric attenuation or a day night cycle or seasonality, and you're always normal to the sun. So you're really maximizing the solar power at that point, and space solar actually costs less than terrestrial solar because you don't need heavy glass or framing to protect them from extreme weather events.

我认为可能只需要两三年，太空AI芯片的成本就会真正低于地面。因为在太空中，你不太需要电池，因为总是阳光普照。而且你在太空中获得的太阳能至少是地面上的五倍以上，因为没有大气衰减、没有昼夜循环、没有季节性，而且你总能正对太阳。所以你在那时真正最大化利用了太阳能。并且太空太阳能实际上比地面太阳能更便宜，因为你不需要厚重的玻璃或框架来保护它们免受极端天气的影响。

So as soon as the cost to orbit drops to a low number, it immediately makes extremely compelling sense to put AI in space. It becomes a no brainer basically. Moreover as you go to space, you get increased economies of scale and things get easier over time. Whereas you try to put more and more power on the ground, you run out of space and then you start using up the easy spots, and then you get NIMBY, nobody wants the thing in their backyard. So actually increasing power on earth has becomes harder over time and more expensive over time. But in space, it becomes actually cheaper and easier over time. These are very important points.

所以，一旦进入轨道的成本降到足够低，将AI放在太空中就会立刻变得极其有吸引力。基本上就成了一个不用动脑的选择。此外，随着你走向太空，你还会获得更大的规模经济效应，事情会随着时间的推移变得越来越容易。而当你试图在地面上部署越来越多能量时，你会遇到空间不足的问题，然后你会占用那些便利的位置，接着就会遭遇邻避效应（NIMBY，Not In My Back Yard），没人希望这个东西建在自家后院。所以实际上，在地球上增加电力会随着时间的推移变得越来越难，越来越贵。但在太空中，实际上会随着时间的推移变得更便宜、更容易。这些都是非常重要的点。

So what you just thought there was, because of course, you're asking what's on your mind is, well, what do you do after TERAFAB, don't think small. Well, yeah, good point. So how do you get to a Padawan is the obvious next question. And you get there by having an Electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with robots, with Optimus and obviously lots of humans.

那么，你们刚才在想的是，当然，你们现在想问的是，TERAFAB之后呢？别想得太小。好吧，好问题。那么，下一个显而易见的问题是如何达到帕瓦级（Petawatt）。要实现这个，你需要在月球上安装一个电磁质量驱动器，配合机器人，配合擎天柱，当然还有大量的人类参与。

And with that you can send a petawatt. You can create a petawatt of compute and send that to deep space. Because on the moon, moon has an atmosphere and has one sixth earth gravity. So you don't need rockets on the moon, you can literally accelerate it to escape velocity from the surface.

有了那个，你就可以发送帕瓦级的能量。你可以创造出帕瓦级的计算能力，并将其发送到深空。因为在月球上，月球没有大气层，而且重力只有地球的六分之一。所以在月球上你不需要火箭，你可以直接把它加速到逃逸速度，从月球表面发射出去。

And that dramatically drops the costs, once again, of harnessing power. And enables you to go a thousand times bigger than a terawatt. So for sure, the future I want to see, I want to just live long enough to see the mass driver on the moon, because that's going to be incredibly epic.

这再一次极大地降低了利用能量的成本，并使你能做到比1太瓦大一千倍的事情。所以，毫无疑问，我想要的未来，我希望我能活得足够久，看到月球上的那个质量驱动器，因为那将是难以置信的史诗。

That should hopefully get us to a millionth of the sun's energy, at least. Humbling to think about that. But a million to the sun's energy would be a million times bigger than Earth's economy, so it's good from that perspective. And then, yeah, you expand beyond that to the planets, to the other stars, and create the most exciting possible future than that I can imagine.

那应该有望让我们至少达到太阳能量的百万分之一。想想这点让人感到谦卑。但达到太阳能量的百万分之一，意味着经济规模将比目前地球经济大一百万倍，所以从这个角度看是好事。然后，是的，你在此基础上扩展到行星，扩展到其他恒星，创造出我能想象到的最激动人心的未来。

This looks a bit like the opening in Idiocracy with Mike Judge. Unlocking an age of amazing abundance. So obviously the elements of that are sustainable energy, space travel and AI and robotics that bring amazing abundance to everyone. And it's really the only path to amazing abundance is AI and robotics, which is not to say it can't go wrong hopefully, but I think it will probably go right, and it'll be a future that you love, and it's the best future I can think of at least.

这看起来有点像迈克·贾吉执导的《蠢蛋进化论》的开场。开启一个惊人富足的时代。所以，显然，构成这个时代的要素是可持续能源、太空旅行以及AI和机器人技术，它们为每个人带来惊人的富足。而实现惊人富足的唯一路径确实是AI和机器人技术，这并不是说它不会出问题，但希望它能顺利发展，它会成为一个你们热爱的未来，至少，这是我能想到的最好的未来。

And then we go beyond the moon, beyond Mars, and we sail through the rings of Saturn. Wouldn't be amazing if you could buy a trip to Saturn? Or frankly, if you just have a trip to Saturn. I think things will just be free in the future. It sounds nuts but, if you've got an AI robotics economy that is anywhere close to a million times the size of the current Earth economy. Literally any need you possibly want can be met. If you can think of it you can have it. So I think Ian Banks in his culture books has it pretty much right where there actually isn't money in the future, and there's abundance for everyone. If you can think of it, you can have it, that's it, which means anyone could have a trip to Saturn. It won't just be a few people. If you wanted, you can have it.

然后我们超越月球，超越火星，我们驶过土星环。如果你能买一张去土星的旅行票，那不是很棒吗？或者坦率地说，哪怕只是有一次去土星的旅行。我认为未来东西都会是免费的。这听起来很疯狂，但是，如果你有一个AI驱动的机器人经济体，其规模接近当前地球经济的一百万倍。你想要的任何需求基本上都能得到满足。只要你能想到的，你就能拥有它。所以我认为伊恩·班克斯在他的“文明”系列书籍里描述得相当准确，未来实际上没有金钱，每个人都有富足的生活。只要你能想到，你就能拥有它，就是这样。这意味着任何人都可以去土星旅行。不会只有少数几个人。如果你想去，你就可以。

Yeah, join us on this journey and help us design incredible chips and make incredible chips and build a terawatt of chips, a terawatt of solar. And tell me your terms to over per year. Thank you.

是的，加入我们的旅程，帮助我们设计不可思议的芯片，制造不可思议的芯片，建造1太瓦的芯片，1太瓦的太阳能。并告诉我你每年能达到的（运载）能力。谢谢。

作者丨张心怡编辑丨邱江勇美编丨马利亚监制丨赵晨